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據(jù)印度政府最新發(fā)布的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示，到2026年，印度總?cè)丝趯⑦_到14.71億，從而取代中國成為世界上人口最多的國家。到2050年，印度的人口將超過16億，這將嚴重威脅國家的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。該統(tǒng)計報告的作者表示，印度需要重新考慮阻止人口增長的政策，以防止人口增長使貧困問題加劇。該作者同時指出，印度5億的貧困人口得不到穩(wěn)定的經(jīng)濟來源，導(dǎo)致印度有四分之一的女孩在18歲前便懷孕生子，這也是人口增長加快的原因之一。對此，印度國內(nèi)評論人士則表示，人口增長將會為印度的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展帶來客觀的人口紅利，從而促進經(jīng)濟更快發(fā)展。他們表示，目前印度每年都能培養(yǎng)出16萬工程師和100多萬名技工，隨著人口的增長，這些專業(yè)技術(shù)人員的數(shù)量也會隨之上升，而人們受教育機會不斷增加必然會減慢人口增長的速度。
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A densely packed crowd in front of Jama Masjid in New Delhi. |
India will overtake China to become the world's most populous nation within the next 16 years, according to new government figures.
Officials say the rise in population to more than 1.6 billion by 2050 will threaten the country's rapid economic development.
According to the author, Dr Amarjeet Singh of the National Population Stabilisation Fund, India will need to reconsider its position to stop population growth fuelling poverty.
India's current population of 1.1 billion will swell by 371 million in 2026, the report said, taking it beyond China's current 1.35 billion.
The scale of India's population explosion is highlighted by the fact that its most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, has more than 180 million people.
The report's publication provoked a clash between India's population experts and leading commentators over whether the rise will help or hinder the country's remarkable growth story. India's economy is currently growing at more than nine percent – second only to China.
Author Dr Amarjeet Singh warned that becoming the world's most populous country will trap several hundred million Indians in poverty.
"If we continue to grow at the current pace we will double our population in fifty years making sustainable development unattainable," he said.
His report blamed economic insecurity among the country's 500 million poor, which led to high rates of teenage pregnancies. It revealed that a quarter of India's teenage girls were either pregnant or mothers by age eighteen.
Those girls who left school early were more likely to become teenage mothers, while those who remained at school showed lower fertility levels, the report claimed.
Dr Singh's report for the Ministry of Heath and Family Welfare was denounced by rival experts and commentators who said a growing nation could pay a "demographic dividend" of even higher economic growth.
"This is absolute bunkum," said AR Nanda, executive director of the Population Foundation of India and former commissioner of India's census.
"Over the next 25 years India will reap a demographic dividend of high economic growth providing we invest in human resources and health. We could see an economic surge," he added.
Pavan K Varma, one of India's most influential social commentators, said India already produces 160,000 newly qualified engineers and more than one million technicians every year, which will increase as its population and investment in education rise.
He said increasing education opportunities and the rise in access to television was already slowing the population growth rate.
"More than 500 million people in rural India are watching cable television and as more and more try to replicate the lifestyles they see portrayed so fleshily, they see how each child reduces the possibility of being part of this upwardly mobile curve," he said.
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(Agencies)
（中國日報網(wǎng)英語點津 Helen 編輯）
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